NOAA Deploys AI Weather Models, Including First Hybrid Ensemble

Overview

• NOAA moved three systems into operations: AIGFS, AIGEFS and a 62‑member hybrid HGEFS that blends AI and physics‑based ensembles.
• AIGFS completes a 16‑day forecast in about 40 minutes using roughly 0.3% of the computing resources of the current GFS.
• NOAA reports AIGEFS extends ensemble forecast skill by about 18 to 24 hours while requiring about 9% of GEFS computing needs.
• Initial verification shows HGEFS consistently outperforms both the AI‑only AIGEFS and the physics‑only GEFS, which NOAA says is a first‑of‑its‑kind operational system.
• The suite stems from Project EAGLE and builds on Google DeepMind’s GraphCast fine‑tuned with NOAA data, with v1.0 limitations noted in tropical cyclone intensity that NOAA plans to address.