Overview
- NOAA said the Pacific has shifted out of La Niña and put the odds of El Niño forming between May and July at 61% with persistence through late 2026.
- New outlooks from ECMWF and NOAA point to sea-surface warming that could reach about 2°C above average by late fall, a threshold some forecasters informally call a “super” El Niño.
- Scientists report a large oceanic Kelvin wave and bursts of strong westerly winds pushing warm water east across the Pacific, signals that often foreshadow a strong El Niño.
- In India, unseasonal hail and heavy rain this month flattened ripening wheat in Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana, and officials warned the losses could feed food inflation.
- Forecasts made in spring are less reliable, so agencies remain cautious and the IMD plans a detailed monsoon briefing later this month.