Overview
- NOAA announced Thursday that El Niño has begun and said models place roughly a 63% chance the event will reach very strong levels between November and January.
- Operational ocean forecasts such as NOAA's CFSv2 are projecting Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies far above typical thresholds, with some runs approaching values seen in the strongest historical El Niños.
- International agencies including the World Meteorological Organization and regional bodies like Peru's ENFEN warn the pattern will raise the odds of heat waves, shifts in monsoon rainfall, heavy rains and floods in parts of Latin America, and drought in other regions.
- National authorities have moved from monitoring to active preparedness: Argentina convened its Mesa de Preparación and held technical meetings with meteorological and water agencies, while Peru keeps an active coastal El Niño alert.
- Past strong El Niños have cut growth and damaged infrastructure in countries such as Peru, so experts urge accelerated measures—clearing rivers, reinforcing bridges, and expanding early warning systems—to reduce likely impacts on agriculture, health and livelihoods.