Overview
- Following the Climate Prediction Center’s June 11 advisory, NOAA confirmed El Niño has formed in the tropical Pacific and gave a 63% probability the event will reach “very strong” levels during November 2026–January 2027.
- Global model ensembles show a wide spread in strength with several runs projecting Niño‑3.4 sea surface anomalies above 2.0°C and some simulations exceeding 2.5°C, while one model shows values near 3.0°C, leaving peak amplitude uncertain.
- Regional agencies are already responding: India’s IMD/ESSO says El Niño is active and may intensify through the southwest monsoon, while Australia’s BoM has not yet declared El Niño because it uses a stricter temperature threshold.
- Forecasters expect a typical El Niño fingerprint this winter that includes a southward-shifted Pacific jet stream bringing a wetter southern U.S. and Southern California, reduced Atlantic hurricane odds, more Pacific cyclone activity, and elevated drought and heat risks across India, Australia, Indonesia and parts of Africa.
- Because El Niño adds heat on top of long-term global warming, scientists say it increases the chance of near-record global temperatures into 2027 and are urging governments and sectors from agriculture to fisheries to prepare while forecasts are refined in the coming months.