NOAA Confirms Weak La Niña to Guide Early U.S. Winter, With Neutral Likely by Late Winter

Overview

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says a weak La Niña is in place and expected to influence U.S. weather through December into early 2026.
• The agency projects a transition to ENSO‑neutral most likely in January–March 2026, with CPC citing a 61% chance for that window.
• Seasonal outlooks favor a warmer-than-average winter across the southern tier, California and much of the East Coast, with colder conditions in the Pacific Northwest and upper Midwest.
• Precipitation odds tilt wetter for the northern Rockies and Great Lakes and drier for the southern tier, especially the Southeast.
• Forecasters highlight substantial uncertainty due to the NAO, AO, WPO and a large northern Pacific marine heat wave, and late-November maps currently favor cooler West and warmer central and eastern U.S.