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3h ago

NOAA Confirms Weak La Niña Expected to Persist Through Winter

Forecasters expect muted, shorter-lived effects, leaving regional outlooks highly probabilistic.

Floodwater surrounds a car stranded on Highway 37 in Novato after storms in January 2017. (Robert Tong/Marin Independent Journal)
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The pattern often shifts storm tracks south, placing Michigan on the northern edge of potential winter storms, and can lead to increased lake-effect snow if the Great Lakes remain ice-free. This winter’s La Niña is predicted to be weak, so its impact may not be as pronounced as in previous years.

Overview

  • An official NOAA advisory says La Niña conditions are present and are favored from December through February, with a likely shift back to ENSO‑neutral sometime January to March.
  • La Niña can tilt conditions wetter and cooler for parts of the U.S. Midwest, with Michigan facing higher odds of precipitation and the potential for more lake‑effect snow if the Great Lakes remain largely ice‑free.
  • Australian forecasters note increased chances of cloud, rain and cooler conditions in some regions, though unusually warm nearby seas could outweigh a weak La Niña’s influence.
  • In California, history shows a north–south split in odds during La Niña, with drier tendencies in the south and more mixed outcomes in the north, and major reservoirs currently sit at or above typical levels for the date.
  • Experts stress that this episode appears weak and possibly short‑lived, so impacts may be patchy compared with stronger events and should be interpreted through probability‑based outlooks rather than deterministic expectations.