Overview

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued Thursday’s Nov–Jan outlook showing above-normal precipitation probabilities from the Pacific Northwest and northern California through the northern Rockies, Great Plains and western Great Lakes.
• The forecast leans drier across the Southwest, southern Texas and the Southeast, increasing the risk of worsening drought across the southern tier.
• Temperature probabilities tilt warmer than average for much of the contiguous U.S., while the Upper Midwest and parts of the northern tier have elevated odds of colder conditions.
• NOAA characterizes the event as weak, with central and eastern Pacific anomalies roughly −0.5°C to −1.0°C, and models favor a return to ENSO-neutral by early spring 2026.
• Outlook discussions note a weaker polar vortex and a wavier jet stream this winter that could allow more frequent Arctic air intrusions, and they do not include snowfall projections.