Overview
- NOAA, which released its report Wednesday, said March averaged 50.85°F for the Lower 48—9.35°F above the 20th‑century norm—with 10 states logging their warmest March and 1,432 counties hitting their single warmest March day on record.
- January through March was the driest such period on record for the contiguous U.S., and drought reached 59.9% of the country by March 31, with federal fire outlooks flagging above‑normal wildfire potential across large parts of the South, Southwest and Plains.
- NOAA’s global analysis ranked March 2026 as tied for the second‑warmest on record, and it reported near‑record‑low Arctic sea ice and the Northern Hemisphere’s sixth‑lowest March snow cover, highlighting broad cryosphere losses.
- Forecasts indicate an El Niño is likely to form by May–July 2026 with roughly a 60–80% chance and about a one‑in‑four chance of very strong conditions, which could shift late‑year U.S. rainfall patterns and often suppress Atlantic hurricanes.
- Heat and sparse precipitation cut Western snowpack and strained water supplies, with the Colorado River’s Lake Powell down more than 10 feet this year and projected to drop further, raising risks for 40 million people and an earlier, more intense fire season.