Overview
- NOAA has confirmed El Niño is strengthening across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the agency assigns an 81% chance of very‑strong conditions in October–December 2026 and a 97% chance it will persist into early 2027.
- Satellite and ocean measurements show very large sea‑surface anomalies and elevated upper‑ocean heat, including weekly departures up to about 3.2°C in Niño 1+2 and 1.5°C in Niño 3.4, plus multiple downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves that are fueling the warming.
- WMO and multi‑model ensembles project further rapid intensification with a forecasted Niño 3.4 mean rising toward roughly 3.4°C in October in some model runs, though the timing and exact peak magnitude remain uncertain and not guaranteed.
- The National Centers for Environmental Information switched the RONI baseline from ERSSTv5 to ERSSTv6 on August 3, 2026, which will slightly change RONI values and alter how this event compares with past El Niños.
- Forecasters warn that a stronger El Niño raises the probability of specific impacts such as drier conditions and higher heat risk across much of Australia and the Indian subcontinent, wetter conditions in parts of the eastern Pacific and Horn of Africa, and shifts in hurricane activity that favor the Pacific and suppress the Atlantic.