Overview

• On August 7, NOAA maintained its forecast of 13–18 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes with a 50% probability of an above-normal season.
• Colorado State University’s August 6 two-week outlook affirmed above-average mid-August activity, highlighting support from the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
• Four named tropical storms have formed so far without any reaching hurricane strength, matching climatological timing ahead of the September peak.
• The National Hurricane Center raised the seven-day development odds for a tropical wave off Africa to 40% and lowered chances for a mid-Atlantic disturbance to 20%.
• Persistent warm sea surface temperatures, an active West African monsoon and ENSO-neutral conditions continue to drive forecasts for an active hurricane season.