Overview

• NOAA’s August outlook adjusts seasonal totals to 13–18 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes and 2–5 major hurricanes while retaining a 50% chance of above-normal activity.
• Colorado State University’s two-week forecast through August 19 signals sustained above-average cyclone formation under the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
• Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico remain warmer than average, providing continued energy for storm development.
• Elevated wind shear over the Caribbean and above-normal sea level pressures in the Atlantic are expected to curb storm intensities this season.
• The National Hurricane Center is tracking two Atlantic disturbances with 10% and 50% odds of development over the next week beyond the four tropical storms already recorded.