Overview

• Indiana hosts its first home game between ranked opponents in program history with both teams 3-0 and Illinois at No. 9 against the No. 19 Hoosiers.
• Odds and models tilt toward the home team as Indiana opened at -4.5 and ESPN’s FPI lists a 62.8% win probability for the Hoosiers.
• Quarterbacks post near-identical counting stats through three games, though PFF grades favor Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza (87) over Illinois’ Luke Altmyer (76.4).
• Pressure looms as a swing factor with Altmyer taking sacks on more than 28% of pressures and getting dropped four times by Duke, compared with Mendoza’s 5.3% rate.
• Illinois’ passing game concentrates on Hank Beatty (19 catches, 289 yards, 1 TD) with Justin Bowick as a red-zone finisher (team-high 3 TDs), while Indiana’s offense has leaned run-heavy and must adjust after RB Lee Beebe Jr. was ruled out for the season.