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No. 1 Ohio State Enters Penn State Clash as ~20-Point Favorite as Betting Backs Buckeyes

Predictive models lean to a comfortable margin with a lower total given the visitor's midseason upheaval.

Overview

  • Caesars opened the line at Ohio State -21 before it settled around -20.5, with public money and sharps laying the points, according to the book's head of football trading.
  • Ohio State is 7-0 and 6-1 against the spread, while Penn State is 3-4 with four straight losses following James Franklin's firing and Terry Smith's promotion to interim coach.
  • Dimers' 10,000-simulation model gives the Buckeyes a 93% win probability with a projected 33–13 score and highlights Under 44.5 as the preferred play.
  • Ohio State's passing game features Julian Sayin leading the nation at 80% completion with receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate combining for 1,189 yards and 13 touchdowns.
  • Penn State has not won in Columbus since 2016, and the outcome will shape perceptions ahead of the first College Football Playoff rankings on Nov. 4.