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NIO Sets October Delivery Record at 40,397 as Shares Rally in Hong Kong

Independent models flag the shares as above fair value with free cash flow still negative.

Overview

  • October deliveries rose 92.6% year over year and 16% from September, marking NIO’s first month above 40,000 units.
  • The company credited growth to strong demand across its lineup, with new sub-brands Onvo and Firefly expanding coverage into mid-range and compact segments.
  • NIO’s stock climbed about 4.6% intraday to HK$57.1 and gained 5.1% over the past week, though it remains lower over the past month.
  • A discounted cash flow analysis pegs intrinsic value at $6.18 per share, implying roughly a 17% premium at current prices, and the company’s free cash flow is about CN¥20.2 billion negative with forecasts turning positive by 2029.
  • Rival XPeng reported 42,013 October deliveries, up 76% year over year, underscoring intensifying competition in China’s EV market.