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Nio Falls Below $5 With Q4 Profit Target Under Subsidy Pressure

Markets zero in on a break-even pledge during a phase-down of EV purchase tax breaks.

Overview

  • Nio shares closed around $4.95, more than 35% below the stock’s 2025 high and within $2 of all-time lows.
  • November deliveries reached 36,275 vehicles after a record 40,397 in October, and the company projects 120,000 to 125,000 deliveries for Q4, a guide Barclays said was below expectations.
  • Barclays lifted its price target to $4 while keeping an Underweight rating, citing improved vehicle gross margins alongside higher sales and marketing expenses.
  • Despite rapid revenue growth, Nio remains loss-making, with net losses widening from $813.6 million in 2021 to $3.0 billion in 2024.
  • Management reportedly targets the fourth quarter as the first profitable period, as China reduces its full EV purchase tax exemption to a 50% break for 2026–27 before expiry and competition and potential EU tariffs weigh on the outlook.