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Nio Cuts Q4 Delivery Target After Margin Gains, Putting Profit Goal in Focus

Investors are weighing a guidance cut tied to the end of China’s trade‑in subsidies against management’s claim that a first profitable quarter is still in reach.

Overview

  • For Q3 2025, Nio reported a net loss of 3.66 billion yuan on revenue of 21.79 billion yuan, with vehicle gross margin improving to 14.7% and overall gross margin to 13.9%, and both operating and free cash flow turning positive.
  • The company lowered its Q4 delivery outlook to 120,000–125,000 units from 150,000 previously and cited the phase‑out of trade‑in and replacement subsidies for dampening the usual year‑end sales spike; roughly 80,000 vehicles are needed in November–December to hit the low end.
  • CEO William Li said the Q4 break‑even objective remains intact despite the reduced volume plan, pointing to a richer mix from higher‑margin models such as the ES8 and Onvo L90.
  • Lower‑priced sub‑brands continued to drive scale: Nio delivered 87,071 vehicles in Q3 (+40.8% year over year) and a monthly record 40,397 in October, with Firefly contributing 5,912 units as the group’s average selling price fell to a record low.
  • Analyst views diverged and shares slipped after the outlook revision, with Goldman Sachs lifting its target to $7 (neutral), Morgan Stanley reiterating Overweight at $9, Bank of America trimming to $6.70 (neutral), and Macquarie cutting to $5.30 and downgrading to neutral; Nio also shipped its first right‑hand‑drive cars to Singapore and plans entries into Thailand and the UK in 2026.