Overview

• NIKE will release fiscal Q1 results after Tuesday’s close, with Wall Street expecting EPS of about $0.26–$0.28 on roughly $11.0 billion in revenue, implying a year-over-year EPS drop of around 60% and a sales decline near 5%.
• Nike’s guidance calls for a mid-single-digit revenue decline and a 350–425 basis-point gross-margin headwind for the quarter, including roughly 100 bps from U.S. tariffs.
• CFO Matthew Friend has estimated about $1 billion in incremental gross costs and outlined plans to cut China-origin U.S. imports from about 16% to the high-single-digit range by fiscal year-end.
• Analysts model gross margin near 41.7% versus 40.3% in the prior quarter, with Nike Direct and wholesale revenue each projected to fall around 8%, Nike brand sales down about 5%, and Converse down roughly 9%.
• Shares are down about 8% year to date; recent analyst moves include several price-target raises and one upgrade, while historical data show the stock has fallen after earnings 63% of the time with a median one-day drop of 6.5%.