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Nike Posts Narrow Q4 Beat as Tariff Refund Masks Underlying Weakness

A one-time IEEPA tariff refund boosted reported profit, leaving Nike’s turnaround dependent on World Cup sell-through, China recovery, an upcoming CFO transition.

Overview

  • Nike reported fourth-quarter sales of $10.97 billion and diluted earnings of $0.72 per share, a figure that includes a $0.52-per-share IEEPA tariff refund and equals an adjusted EPS of $0.20 without that refund.
  • Regional results diverged as North America showed momentum with revenue up about 3% to $4.8 billion while Greater China slid roughly 12% to $1.3 billion, making China a major drag on recovery.
  • Channel mix shifted in the quarter with wholesale revenue rising to $6.6 billion and Nike Direct falling to $4.1 billion, a move that improves reach but pressures margins and makes retail sell-through the key test of demand.
  • Near-term catalysts include the FIFA World Cup as a concentrated marketing and merchandising test that could drive FY27 Q1 sell-through, and a planned CFO transition with David Denton joining on Aug. 17.
  • Analysts and management warn the tariff windfall distorts operating momentum, investors remain cautious, and Nike says it will set out more of its long-term roadmap at a rescheduled investor day in November.