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Nike Beats Q4 Estimates but Underlying Sales Show Clear Weakness

A one-time $986 million tariff recovery plus large dividend returns obscure currency‑neutral revenue declines and a steep fall in Greater China, prompting cautious FY2027 guidance.

Overview

  • Nike reported results on June 30 with adjusted EPS of $0.20 and nearly $11 billion in revenue, topping Wall Street estimates but showing a 1% drop in reported sales.
  • On a currency‑neutral basis Q4 revenue fell about 4%, with Greater China plunging 17% which the company tied to excess inventory it is working to clear with retail partners.
  • The company recognized a one‑time $986 million tariff benefit in Q4 that materially boosted reported profit and gross margin and does not reflect ongoing operating performance.
  • Nike returned roughly $609 million in dividends in Q4 and about $2.5 billion to shareholders for fiscal 2026, including $2.4 billion in dividends and only $123 million in buybacks.
  • Management gave cautious FY2027 guidance that expects sales declines in the first half and only modest margin improvement while promising a product‑led recovery with new sports footwear in H2, leaving investors and some analysts wary.