Overview
- Researchers published linked papers in the British Journal of Cancer on 4 August 2026 analysing 1,258 women under 50 from the Breast Cancer Now Generations Study and found NICE family‑history referral rules would refer 1.4% of women and identify 4.4% of those who develop breast cancer within 10 years.
- Using the BOADICEA multifactorial model via the CanRisk platform to assess all under‑50s would flag 26.5% as above‑population risk and capture about 34.8% of women who go on to develop cancer within a decade.
- The study attributes the gap largely to the fact that about 73% of under‑50 women who develop breast cancer within 10 years have no family history, which the NICE rules emphasise.
- Authors and funders say broader risk assessment could allow earlier screening or prevention but would greatly increase referrals, demand for genetic testing, workforce needs, and costs; NICE said it welcomed the research but that evidence is not yet sufficient to change guidance.
- A linked public survey showed support for proactive invitations and more comprehensive risk tools for ages 30–49, and researchers called for feasibility, equity, cost‑effectiveness studies and trials to test safe NHS implementation.