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NHS Deploys AI Tool to Forecast A&E Demand During Winter Surge

Ministers say the forecasts help hospitals plan capacity to cut waits during the peak season.

Overview

  • The forecasting system is available to all NHS trusts via the Federated Data Platform and is currently used by 50 NHS organisations with about 170 active users each month.
  • The tool analyses historical admissions, weekly patterns and Met Office temperature forecasts to generate short‑term projections hospitals can use for staffing and bed planning.
  • Officials report early positive feedback from hospital managers who say the forecasts support quicker, better‑informed decisions on capacity.
  • This winter has brought record flu cases, and more than 18 million flu vaccines have been delivered across autumn as services prepare for increased demand.
  • The rollout forms part of the Prime Minister’s AI Exemplars programme, with separate trials such as Cera’s predictive care and Tortus’s AI scribe reporting efficiency gains as described by providers and clinicians.