Overview

• The disturbance is forecast to move west to west-northwest at about 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic this week, according to the hurricane center.
• If the system organizes, it would be the season’s seventh named storm and would take the name Gabrielle.
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center flags increased formation chances in the tropical Atlantic Sept. 3–9, with enhanced activity from Sept. 10 and elevated odds in the southern Gulf and northwestern Caribbean.
• Experts note exceptionally warm Caribbean sea-surface temperatures, with Hurricane Erin’s prior circulation contributing to reduced mixing and hotter waters.
• Officials urge readiness now, including supply checks and insurance reviews, noting flood insurance typically carries a 30-day waiting period.