Overview

• The National Hurricane Center places development odds at 40% in 48 hours and 80% within seven days for a wave in the central tropical Atlantic.
• Forecasters say a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of the week as the system moves west-northwest at 10–15 mph.
• Recent model guidance increasingly suggests an early northward recurvature that keeps the system away from the U.S. East Coast, though uncertainty remains.
• Some forecast models allow for strengthening to a named storm, potentially Gabrielle, and even a hurricane in the open Atlantic.
• Near-term U.S. impacts are not expected, and any potential track toward Bermuda or the Caribbean remains speculative until a defined center forms.