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NHC Trims Odds As Atlantic Disturbance Tracks Toward Lesser Antilles

Forecast confidence has dipped because the system remains disorganized far east of the Caribbean.

An NHC graphic highlights the disturbance in red.
The CPC's tropics hazards outlook.
AccuWeather's forecast map shows the system's expected path.
Clouds fill the sky on Labor Day in El Mirage, Arizona, on Sept. 1, 2025.

Overview

  • The National Hurricane Center on Friday lowered multiday formation odds to about 70% and said a tropical depression is still possible this weekend as the wave moves west across the central Atlantic.
  • Invest 91L is expected to be near the Lesser Antilles by mid to late next week, and officials advise interests there to monitor updates.
  • Models remain split on the longer‑range path, with faster strengthening favoring a northward turn and slower development supporting a more westward track toward the Caribbean.
  • Dry air and wind shear are limiting organization for now, and several forecast runs suggest the system could remain weak or only reach tropical depression strength.
  • Forecasters note very warm waters in the Caribbean and Gulf later this month could support rapid intensification if a stronger system reaches those regions, though any potential U.S. impacts are more than 10 days away and uncertain.