Overview
- The National Hurricane Center on Monday gave Invest 95L about a 50% chance of becoming a short-lived tropical depression or storm over the next 48 hours and seven days.
- Forecasts show Invest 95L moving north to north-northeast a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda and passing over colder waters by Wednesday, which the NHC says should end its development chances.
- A tropical wave moving off West Africa has roughly 50 to 60% odds of forming into a tropical depression by mid-to-late week while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
- Forecasters say a strengthening El Niño, frequent plumes of Saharan dust, and elevated upper-level wind shear are suppressing intensification this season but individual systems can still bring rough seas, gusty winds, and localized heavy rain to ships and nearby islands.
- NOAA and seasonal outlooks point to a below-average Atlantic season overall, so officials urge continued monitoring during the climatological peak around Sept. 10 when activity can increase rapidly.