Overview
- The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disorganized trough east‑southeast of Bermuda that the agency says has about a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression within seven days.
- The NHC's short-range outlook keeps formation odds near zero through 48 hours while models show conditions may slowly improve by midweek, according to advisories issued Tuesday.
- Forecasters say the system is expected to move slowly west‑northwest over the subtropical Atlantic and currently poses no immediate threat to Florida, the U.S. East Coast, the Gulf, or the Caribbean.
- In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Norbert is forecast to weaken to a post‑tropical remnant low and Fifteen‑E is exposed and likely to struggle to reach tropical‑storm strength because of shear and dry air.
- Meteorologists link the season's unusual quiet to a strong El Niño that has increased upper‑level wind shear and dry air across the main development region, and they warn mariners to watch for rough seas even if any system stays over open water.