Overview

• Tropical Storm Lorenzo has dissipated over open water, with no coastal watches or warnings and no land impacts reported, after dry air and wind shear stripped its organization.
• The National Hurricane Center on Thursday tagged a tropical wave in the central Atlantic that is moving west at 15–20 mph, assigning 0% formation odds in 48 hours and 20% over seven days.
• Guidance suggests the disturbance reaches the Windward Islands Sunday or Monday before any chance to organize in the central or southern Caribbean by mid‑next week.
• Long‑range model ensembles show a wide range of outcomes; aggregated expert estimates place roughly a 20–30% chance of at least a tropical depression within about 10 days and under 10% odds of a strong storm.
• Forecasters note the unusually far‑south track could limit development near South America, and the next name on the list would be Melissa if the system strengthens.