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2h ago

NHC Says Atlantic Disturbance Likely to Form as It Nears the Leeward Islands

Forecast guidance favors a recurvature away from the U.S., leaving the islands to monitor for rain and gusty winds.

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Tropical Storm Jerry: Alerts for coastal flooding and heavy rains are in effect across Northeast Florida, while other regions face sporadic showers and thunderstorms, with high winds and wave risks expected throughout the state.
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Overview

  • The National Hurricane Center places Invest 95L’s formation odds at 50% in 48 hours and 70% in seven days, with a tropical depression likely by midweek.
  • The system is several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, producing disorganized thunderstorms while moving west-northwest at roughly 15–20 mph.
  • Forecasts indicate the disturbance could approach the northern Leeward Islands late this week, and interests there are urged to track updates.
  • Most reliable models steer the center to the northeast of the islands before turning out to sea, and experts currently view a U.S. landfall as unlikely.
  • If named, the storm would be Jerry; Bermuda could be a later area to watch, and forecasters also highlight the potential for a separate non-tropical East Coast storm this weekend.