Overview

• Invest 98‑L is a few hundred miles west of the Windward Islands, lacks a closed circulation, and is producing 30–40 mph winds with heavy showers affecting the Windward and Leeward Islands.
• The National Hurricane Center now gives the system about a 30–50% chance of development in 48 hours and roughly 70–80% within seven days, with a tropical depression likely by mid to late week.
• The disturbance is moving west at 20–25 mph, which is limiting near‑term organization until steering currents weaken and the system slows in the central Caribbean.
• Model guidance remains split, with some scenarios turning the system north toward Hispaniola or eastern Cuba and others keeping it weaker and drifting west toward Central America, leaving the U.S. mainland at low risk over the next 7–10 days.
• If the system consolidates, exceptionally warm water and generally low wind shear could allow quicker strengthening, and some model runs indicate the potential for very heavy rainfall over parts of the Caribbean; the next name would be Melissa.