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2h ago

NHC Raises Odds for Invest 95L to Develop as System Heads Toward Northeast Caribbean

Models place the disturbance near the northeast Caribbean late this week with dry air likely to slow strengthening.

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Invest 95-L moving Westward can become jerry. No threats for Florida. Locally, temperatures will reach the 80s with quick showers each morning and afternoon.

Overview

  • The National Hurricane Center's 2 p.m. outlook increased development chances for Invest 95L to 50% in 48 hours and 70% over seven days.
  • The broad, disorganized low several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to race across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the Leeward Islands late this week.
  • Forecast guidance widely agrees the system will near the northeastern Caribbean Thursday or Friday before turning north into the central Atlantic.
  • Strength remains uncertain, with Google DeepMind guidance favoring a peak at tropical storm intensity, which would take the name Jerry, as dry air and the system’s large size hinder rapid organization.
  • Separately, the NHC lowered Gulf development odds to 0% for a system lingering off Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, while a different coastal low continues to produce rough surf and high rip currents along Florida’s east coast.