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NHC Raises Florida Storm Development Odds to 40% as Holiday Weekend Approaches

The slow-moving low-pressure system is expected to bring days of heavy rain and flood risk across Florida over the Fourth of July weekend.

A map from the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Chantal could form near four states this weekend.
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The National Hurricane Center has predicted a tropical storm impacting weather in Florida.
Regions where tropical cyclones usually form in July.

Overview

  • On July 2, the National Hurricane Center assigned a 40% chance of tropical or subtropical development within seven days along a stalled frontal boundary off Florida’s coast.
  • If the system intensifies, it would be named Tropical Storm Chantal, becoming the third named storm of the 2025 Atlantic season after Andrea and Barry.
  • Forecasts call for prolonged multi-day rainfall and scattered thunderstorms through July 4, raising concerns about urban and river flooding regardless of cyclone formation.
  • Marginal conditions for development include warm sea-surface temperatures offset by Saharan dust and wind shear, and computer models diverge on the system’s exact track and formation point.
  • The disturbance follows two early-season storms and falls during NOAA’s projection of an above-average 2025 hurricane season with 13 to 19 named storms.