Particle.news
Download on the App Store
10 ARTICLES
·
2d ago

NHC Raises Florida Development Odds to 40% for Potential Tropical Storm Chantal

Warm Gulf waters fueling a stalled frontal boundary carry a 40% chance of tropical development, with flood threats mounting across Central Florida this holiday weekend.

A map from the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical Storm Chantal could form near four states this weekend.
Image
Regions where tropical cyclones usually form in July.
The National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Hurricane Flossie on July 1, 2025.

Overview

  • Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center now assign a 40% probability that a low-pressure area off Florida will become a tropical depression or storm within seven days.
  • If the system organizes, it would be named Tropical Storm Chantal, marking the third named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
  • A stalled frontal boundary interacting with unusually warm Gulf of Mexico waters and cooler Atlantic temperatures is driving the elevated development potential.
  • The National Weather Service warns that heavy showers and thunderstorms beginning Thursday could lead to flash flooding across Central Florida and disrupt Fourth of July celebrations.
  • NOAA’s seasonal outlook predicts an active Atlantic hurricane season with 13 to 19 named storms, including up to 10 hurricanes and as many as five major hurricanes.