Overview

• The National Hurricane Center now puts the large tropical wave near the Cabo Verde region at 60–70% odds of formation within seven days, with a 10% chance in 48 hours.
• A tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves west‑northwest at 10–15 mph across the central Atlantic.
• Dry, dusty air and wind shear are limiting organization for now, despite broadly above‑average sea‑surface temperatures that favor development later.
• Early model guidance splits on the eventual track, ranging from a turn into the open Atlantic to paths closer to the Caribbean or Bermuda, with no clear immediate U.S. East Coast threat.
• This year’s climatological peak passed with no active storms, and the season sits at six named storms and one hurricane, with forecasters noting substantial activity often occurs after Sept. 10.