Overview

• The NHC’s 8 a.m. outlook bumped the system’s chances to 10% over 48 hours and 30% over seven days as it tracks westward across the peninsula into the Gulf.
• Forecasters warn that heavy rain could produce localized flash flooding through midweek regardless of whether the disturbance becomes a cyclone.
• If the low strengthens into a tropical storm it would be named Dexter, though confidence remains low due to marginal environmental conditions.
• The trough is expected to cross Florida by Tuesday before entering the northeastern Gulf where warm waters and light wind shear could support gradual development.
• NOAA projects an above-normal 2025 hurricane season while Colorado State University has slightly reduced its earlier storm forecast.