Overview

• The National Hurricane Center said Saturday a tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands has a medium chance of formation over seven days, with dry, stable air likely to slow development until mid to late next week.
• Forecasters expect the disturbance to track west-northwest to northwest at 10–15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic, and they see no immediate threat to land over the next week.
• If the system becomes a named storm it would likely be called Gabrielle, according to forecaster guidance and the NHC naming list.
• In the eastern North Pacific, Tropical Storm Mario is moving parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico and could produce 2–4 inches of rain with local amounts up to 6 inches, raising a flash flood risk through the weekend.
• AccuWeather now projects 13–16 named storms and 6–9 hurricanes this season, citing dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear, even as very warm Gulf waters could enable rapid intensification if a system reaches the region.