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NHC Monitors Low Off North Carolina and African Wave as Development Odds Rise

A nontropical low off North Carolina now carries a 40 percent chance of development by early this week, with a tropical wave off Africa at 20 to 30 percent odds.

This NHC map highlights the disturbances being monitored in the Atlantic.
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A rendering from the National Hurricane Center that shows the predicted path of Tropical Storm Dexter.

Overview

  • The National Hurricane Center reports a frontal low about 180 miles off North Carolina has a 40 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation within both the next 48 hours and seven days.
  • Forecasters say environmental conditions are marginally favorable for the North Carolina disturbance to become a tropical or subtropical depression as it moves east-northeast at roughly 10 mph.
  • A tropical wave forecast to move off Africa’s west coast holds a 20 to 30 percent chance of development over the next seven days while tracking west-northwest across the central Atlantic.
  • The Climate Prediction Center warns two additional systems could form near Central Florida with 20 to 40 percent odds of development in the next ten days.
  • NOAA’s 2025 seasonal outlook anticipates 13 to 19 named storms, including 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes, between June and November.