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2w ago

NHC Lowers Jerry’s Outlook as Tropical Storm Drenches Leeward Islands

Forecasters expect a northward turn that keeps the center away from Bermuda, with dangerous surf continuing across the islands.

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This image shows the tropical hazards outlook through Oct. 28 from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. The map highlights areas with increased tropical development potential in the southern Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean Sea, and eastern Pacific Ocean as the Central American Gyre — a broad, slowly rotating system of low atmospheric pressure — becomes more active.

Overview

  • Tropical Storm Jerry is no longer expected to become a hurricane, with forecasters noting little chance of significant strengthening and the potential for weakening.
  • Rainfall of 2–4 inches with localized higher amounts is triggering a flash‑flood risk across the Leeward and Virgin Islands, and hazardous rip currents are ongoing.
  • The center is passing north of the Leeward Islands today before turning north and then east into the open Atlantic, with a track well southeast of Bermuda on Sunday.
  • Tropical‑storm alerts remain in effect for parts of the northern Leeward Islands as large swells and gusty winds spread across the region.
  • Elsewhere, the NHC named Subtropical Storm Karen north‑northwest of the Azores, while a Bay of Campeche disturbance moved inland over southern Mexico with no development expected.