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1h ago

NHC: Invest 95L Likely to Form Within a Day as It Nears the Northern Leeward Islands Late Week

High odds of development prompt close monitoring for the northeastern Caribbean later this week.

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Tropical Storm Jerry: Alerts for coastal flooding and heavy rains are in effect across Northeast Florida, while other regions face sporadic showers and thunderstorms, with high winds and wave risks expected throughout the state.

Overview

  • Satellite data show a better-defined low about 1,500 miles east of the Windward Islands with increasing organization.
  • The NHC pegs formation chances at 80% in 48 hours and 90% in seven days, with reconnaissance scheduled Wednesday and the next name on the list being Jerry.
  • The system is moving west-northwest and is expected to pass near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday.
  • Most forecast guidance indicates a turn into the open Atlantic, though intensity is uncertain with some models showing hurricane potential and dry air possibly limiting rapid strengthening.
  • A separate disturbance near the Yucatán and Bay of Campeche has a 10% development chance and could bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Yucatán, Belize and southern Mexico.