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1h ago

NHC: Invest 95L Likely to Form This Week as System Heads Toward Leeward Islands

Most guidance points to a recurving track into the open Atlantic with uncertainty on the exact path and intensity.

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Tropical Storm Jerry: Alerts for coastal flooding and heavy rains are in effect across Northeast Florida, while other regions face sporadic showers and thunderstorms, with high winds and wave risks expected throughout the state.
The next tropical depression or storm is likely to form this week in the red highlighted area on the map, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Overview

  • The disturbance has a 50% chance of development in 48 hours and 70% in seven days, with a tropical depression considered likely by midweek.
  • A broad low with disorganized showers sits several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving quickly west-northwest.
  • Forecast models generally bring the system near the northern Leeward Islands late this week before turning it away from the U.S., aided by an East Coast frontal pattern.
  • Saharan dust and dry air may limit rapid strengthening even as overall conditions favor gradual development.
  • Authorities urge interests in the northeast Caribbean to monitor updates and prepare, and it remains too early to determine any U.S. impacts; the next storm name would be Jerry.