Overview

• The disturbance in the central tropical Atlantic is moving west-northwest at 10–15 mph roughly midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
• NHC pegs development odds near 90% within seven days, with a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Gabrielle possible by mid to late week.
• Guidance clusters on a northwest motion followed by a turn north that would keep it away from the U.S. East Coast, though Bermuda should monitor.
• Very warm waters and light wind shear favor organization, but Saharan dry air has slowed consolidation until a moister environment arrives.
• The potential genesis follows an unprecedented 18-day quiet stretch during the season’s peak, while in the eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Mario is sending moisture toward the Southwest later this week.