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4d ago

NHC: Invest 91L Likely to Form This Weekend as Track Shifts Toward the Caribbean

Formation odds have surged, leaving the eventual track tied to how quickly the system intensifies.

An NHC graphic highlights the disturbance in red.
The CPC's tropics hazards outlook.
AccuWeather's forecast map shows the system's expected path.
Clouds fill the sky on Labor Day in El Mirage, Arizona, on Sept. 1, 2025.

Overview

  • The National Hurricane Center now gives Invest 91L a 60% chance of development in 48 hours and 90% in seven days, with a tropical depression likely by this weekend as it moves west at 5 to 10 mph.
  • Successive updates show a slight southward shift in the projected corridor, and the disturbance is expected to be near the Lesser Antilles by mid to late next week.
  • If it reaches tropical-storm strength, the system would be named Gabrielle and become the seventh named storm of the 2025 Atlantic season.
  • Forecast models indicate faster strengthening would favor a turn north into the open Atlantic, whereas slower development would keep a more westward track toward the Caribbean, and any potential U.S. effects are likely more than 10 days away.
  • Warm sea-surface temperatures and high ocean heat content are fueling a mid-September ramp-up, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center flagging elevated odds for development in the Gulf, Florida, and Caribbean regions later this month.