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2h ago

NHC Increases Odds for Atlantic System as Weekend Development Looks Likely

The timing of organization will guide whether it curves into the open Atlantic or holds a farther‑west course.

An NHC graphic highlights the disturbance in red.
The CPC's tropics hazards outlook.
Clouds fill the sky on Labor Day in El Mirage, Arizona, on Sept. 1, 2025.
Image

Overview

  • In an early Thursday update, the National Hurricane Center raised seven‑day formation odds to 80% and said a tropical depression is likely late this week or over the weekend.
  • The disturbance is over the far eastern tropical Atlantic and is moving west‑northwest at about 5 to 10 mph after being several hundred miles south‑southwest of Cabo Verde on Wednesday.
  • If it reaches tropical‑storm strength it would be named Gabrielle, with forecasters expecting initial strengthening to be gradual due to dry air and some wind shear.
  • Model guidance generally favors a northward turn into the open Atlantic if the system organizes sooner, while slower development could allow a farther‑west track toward the Caribbean; no direct U.S. threat is indicated at this time.
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center highlights elevated mid‑September development chances around Florida, the Gulf and the Caribbean, aligning with unusually warm waters at the seasonal peak.