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NHC Increases Development Odds for Florida Tropical Disturbance

Assessed at 30%, it carries a heavy rain and flash flood threat across the peninsula into Gulf Coast areas.

Overview

  • The National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. outlook puts the system’s development chance at 10% over 48 hours and 30% over seven days.
  • A trough of low pressure is expected to move westward across the Florida peninsula into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday.
  • Forecasts warn of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding from Florida through the north-central Gulf Coast by mid- to late week regardless of cyclone formation.
  • If the disturbance organizes into a named storm, it would be called Tropical Storm Dexter, the fourth of the season.
  • NOAA’s above-normal 2025 season forecast of 13–19 named storms holds despite a slight CSU downgrade, as wind shear and Saharan dust continue to inhibit rapid development.