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3w ago

NHC Increases Development Odds for Florida Tropical Disturbance

Assessed at 30%, it carries a heavy rain and flash flood threat across the peninsula into Gulf Coast areas.

A photo of the National Hurricane Center's forecast published on July 13.
The tropical outlook as of 2 p.m. Saturday, July 12, 2025. (NHC)
Image
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a system of low atmospheric pressure, seen as a cluster of clouds Monday morning in this weather satellite photo of Florida's Atlantic coast. Forecasters are watching for potential tropical development as the low pressure system moves into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday.

Overview

  • The National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. outlook puts the system’s development chance at 10% over 48 hours and 30% over seven days.
  • A trough of low pressure is expected to move westward across the Florida peninsula into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday.
  • Forecasts warn of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding from Florida through the north-central Gulf Coast by mid- to late week regardless of cyclone formation.
  • If the disturbance organizes into a named storm, it would be called Tropical Storm Dexter, the fourth of the season.
  • NOAA’s above-normal 2025 season forecast of 13–19 named storms holds despite a slight CSU downgrade, as wind shear and Saharan dust continue to inhibit rapid development.