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1h ago

NHC: Gabrielle Holds Category 4 Strength as Two Atlantic Waves Gain, One Likely to Form This Week

Forecasts point to a likely midweek depression east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical depression likely to form in Atlantic, second disturbance will approach Bahamas. (WPEC){p}{/p}
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It has a 10% to 50% chance of development through the next two to seven days. (WPEC)
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Overview

  • Hurricane Gabrielle has 140 mph winds and is moving northeast away from Bermuda, generating dangerous swells for Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward.
  • A disturbance about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles shows increasing organization with a 30% chance of formation in 48 hours and 80% over seven days, and a tropical depression is likely Thursday or Friday.
  • Model guidance favors a west‑northwest to northwest track for the central Atlantic system, with several forecasts suggesting a path broadly similar to Gabrielle’s.
  • A second wave roughly 100 miles east of the Leeward Islands has a 10% chance of development in 48 hours and 50% over seven days, with a slowdown and northwest turn possible later this week near the Bahamas or the southwestern Atlantic.
  • Regardless of development, the nearer wave will bring gusty winds and periods of rain to the Leeward Islands Tuesday and to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from late Tuesday into Wednesday, as forecasters note broader conditions favor more activity into early October.