Overview
- The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two tropical disturbances in the eastern and central Atlantic with seven-day formation odds of about 40% for the wave expected to move off Africa and about 20% for the system southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
- The wave forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa around Tuesday has the higher chance of organizing and could become a tropical depression in the second half of next week if it holds together as it moves westward.
- The system a few hundred miles southwest of Cabo Verde may see slow, early-week development but is expected to encounter stronger upper-level winds and Saharan dust as it nears the Lesser Antilles, which should limit its intensification.
- NOAA’s Aug. 6 seasonal update reduced its 2026 Atlantic outlook to 7–13 named storms and cited a strengthening El Niño that increases wind shear and dry air, factors that both suppress formation and raise the odds storms will weaken or turn north away from the U.S.
- Forecasters and model guidance currently show no immediate U.S. land threat from these disturbances but stress high uncertainty for undeveloped systems and recommend watching short-range forecasts for changes while also noting separate eastern Pacific activity that could affect Hawaii.