Overview
- The National Hurricane Center began tracking two tropical waves in advisories issued Saturday and gave seven-day formation odds near 20% for the wave southwest of Cabo Verde and about 40% for the disturbance forecast to move off Africa.
- Long-range computer models and some meteorologists show scenarios for at least brief development of the eastern disturbance late next week, but the NHC is keeping short-term probabilities conservative because the systems remain disorganized.
- Forecasters say El Niño-driven upper-level wind shear, widespread Saharan dust, and cooler or hostile mid-atlantic conditions are the main reasons development is expected to be limited this season.
- Current guidance does not indicate an immediate threat to U.S. land with many model tracks showing potential systems weakening or turning north before reaching the mainland.
- The NHC is separately monitoring Pacific disturbances where one orange-highlighted area carries medium odds and model consensus suggests possible development that could track toward the Hawaiian Islands over the coming week.