Particle.news

NHC Flags New Atlantic Area to Watch as Tropical Wave Prepares to Move Off Africa

Forecasters keep short-term development odds low because a strong El Niño and Saharan dust are expected to suppress Atlantic storm formation.

Overview

  • The National Hurricane Center on Saturday marked a yellow 'area to watch' in the far eastern/central tropical Atlantic for a tropical wave currently over Africa that is forecast to move off the coast early next week.
  • The NHC assigns about a 20% chance of development over seven days for the disturbance and uses yellow to denote that low probability.
  • Some long-range computer models show the system could organize later in the week, but forecasters emphasize that any forecast for an as-yet undeveloped wave is highly uncertain.
  • Meteorologists say no land impacts are expected at this time as the wave moves west, though its eventual path could change if organization increases.
  • NOAA’s updated 2026 Atlantic outlook projects a below-average season driven by a strong El Niño, and the NHC is separately watching a medium‑chance Pacific disturbance that models suggest could approach Hawaii next weekend.