Overview
- The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday assigned a medium seven-day chance that a broad subtropical disturbance in the central subtropical Atlantic could organize into a tropical depression late this week as upper-level winds briefly ease.
- Tropical Depression Norbert in the eastern Pacific is weakening and is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low over the next 48 hours as strong shear strips its convection.
- Tropical Depression Fifteen-E has a compact center but conflicting short-term forecasts, with an initial NHC forecast for brief strengthening to a minimal tropical storm and a later discussion saying ongoing shear and dry-air entrainment will likely prevent sustained intensification.
- A tightening pressure gradient and strong high pressure are driving fresh to near-gale easterly trades, a Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning, and building rough seas across the central Caribbean and northern Gulf into Thursday night, creating hazardous conditions for mariners and coastal areas.
- A strong El Niño pattern is enhancing upper-level wind shear and dry air over the Atlantic, which is suppressing cyclogenesis and increasing forecast uncertainty so officials urge mariners to monitor updates and heed marine warnings.