Overview

• The system lacks a closed circulation and is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Islands through Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
• As of 2 a.m. Sunday, the NHC places development odds at 10% in 48 hours and 50% over seven days, a slight uptick from Saturday.
• Forecasters say very warm Caribbean waters and low wind shear raise the chance of rapid organization by midweek, with the next storm name on the list being Melissa.
• Hurricane specialists note the disturbance is unusually far south for October, and its closeness to the South American coast could inhibit consolidation and intensification.
• Possible outcomes range from a weak, westward track into Central America with no additional U.S. threat to a route toward Jamaica or the Yucatán that could eventually bring concerns for Florida, AccuWeather says.