Overview

• A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday, Aug. 31, with a 30% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone within seven days.
• The system is expected to track west to west-northwest at about 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, where conditions could allow slow development.
• If it strengthens into a named storm, it would be the season’s seventh and would take the name Gabrielle.
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center highlights an increased likelihood of development in the region between Sept. 3 and 9, with models pointing to a mid-September uptick aided by unusually warm Caribbean waters.
• This outlook comes as NOAA’s seasonal forecast calls for 13–18 named storms with 5–9 hurricanes, and after Hurricane Erin — the season’s lone hurricane so far — generated dangerous surf linked to multiple fatalities.